Design of forest fire risk indices for Chile

Abstract

A forest fire risk system is proposed, based on a study of the factors that influence the probability of occurrence. Information concerning meteorology, population, vegetation and topography was gathered in order to analyze their relation with the ocurrence of about 20.000 forest fires during a four-year period (1985-88).
The most efficient functions for estimating fire risks were the multiple linear regressions with five independent varia­ bles (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, drought and seasonality) an the occurrence probability as a depen­ dent variable.
A very high confiability level was obtained by the indices. However, is necessary to validate the indices in two or three years, starting with data recorded in 1989.